What are the Key Opportunities for Next Generation Titles?
The Vison panel entitled, "What's Next" featured industry luminaries including David Perry, Louis Castle, Cyrus Lum, Masaya Matsuura, and Mark Cerny with Jamil Moledina moderating. Jamil began the session by asking what the panelist thought the key opportunities are for next generation titles. David commented that many opportunities depend on funding and he sees that more companies will be focusing on niche markets. He further commented that according to his data, the cost for game players to play a game ranges between $3-5 dollars an hour and the industry needs to find ways to reduce this cost giving players more entertainment per hour. The Korean market was also mentioned as a key growth opportunity.
Cyrus had quite a bit to say about the niche market and how the game industry mainly designs for the hardcore gaming market. He then stated that we need to ask ourselves, "Are we missing something?" The niche market is about specialization and to be successful in this market. This specialization can be focused on a specific platform or game type. Game companies also need to be more efficient. These efficiencies can be realized by building relationships with other groups within the company and learning from their efforts. One way to build games for niche markets is to design unique controllers. Placing a controller in the hands of a non-gamer often gets them lost, but through innovation, more accessible controllers will be developed. Guitar Heroes was sited as a good example of an accessible controller. Unique controllers can break through and make games accessible to new players and markets. Nintendo has been active in developing new controllers and interfaces.
What are the Downsides to Developing Next Generation Titles?
Another question posed to the panelist was, "What do you see as the downside to developing next generation titles?" This question brought up the often posed question of "What is middleware?" We need to learn to leverage the technologies we already have. Products with too many pieces are confusing for players. The fact that controllers have so many buttons makes it easy to be sloppy when designing a game interface. Games companies need to learn how to do one thing and to do it well. Games often try to do too much with elements of all successful games. We need to not over-design the game, but to focus on an emotional experience. As next generation consoles appear, hardware manufacturers want new innovative titles that push the hardware in new ways, but publishers often lean towards sequels that reduce the risk of the title. The beginning of a hardware cycle is the best time to introduce new risky innovative titles. At the end of a hardware cycle, only sequels and licensed titles seem to appear.
David stated that the return on investment of games that have a 15-25 million dollar budget is sometimes only realized in the 3rd or 4th sequel as the franchise develops. Cyrus was quick to respond that games need to be profitable on their first release. David commented that the industry needs to rethink game financing. One way to do this is product placement. Game companies also need to be more efficient in their development cycle. It is expected that art assets will take four times longer to produce for next generation titles. With these timelines, game companies simply won't have time to rebuild art assets 3, 4, or even 5 times, as is common today. Game studios need to be more disciplined in defining and producing art. David sited Square as being one of the best companies in predicting sales for their titles. It would be helpful to develop better processes that enable designers to explain their vision to artists. Changing your mind concerning art assets can cost around 2 million dollars. It is imperative that you don’t spend time and budget producing something that has already been done.
Game companies also need to find ways to get products into other markets. Game players are expecting the quality to increase for next generation titles, which will require that everyone gets better. Games are reaching a point where they can compete for the TV audience. One new opportunity is digital distribution such as XBOX Arcade Live. When the NGage music distribution was introduced in Japan, it started with an impressive library of 1 million songs, but 60% of these songs were from CD Baby, which included many rare songs from unknown bands. In order to succeed, the offering needs a good mix on both ends including the new and popular and the rare and obscure. It becomes important to figure out a strategy once the space changes.
What are the Viable Options Moving Forward?
Concerning the question, "What are the viable options moving forward," the panelist responded that the Korean market is a good opportunity. We need to develop more titles that appeal to smaller groups. When lots of people are attracted to a game, more people come by to see what the fuss is about. Giving away free games and letting it attract people is an interesting idea such as Wild Tangent. This reduces the risk of games because people know they will like it because they have already tried it. This poses an interesting question of how people purchase games, do they buy games to own or download games such as GameTap. More and more consumers rent games. The panelists commented that many successful games offer a good demo, but they must also have a competent product.
What are Your Thoughts on Outsourcing?
Concerning outsourcing, Mark commented that we cannot decide just one week to outsource. Preparations to outsource need to begin in pre-production. It is also good to prepare an outsourcing package that communicates the design to the outsource group. The decision to outsource is tricky because it isn't what you spend, but what you sell. One opinion was that to create great games, you need to acquire the best concept artists, which is expensive. Don’t put so much into dropping cost that you jeopardize the game quality. You need to think about the value to the game and you can't think that outsourcing will solve your problems. It is more important to have a strong core team where less experienced artists can learn from the experts.
What Games are you Currently Playing?
The final question asked each of the panelist which games they are currently playing. David Perry was happy that since he has resigned he has time to play games. He commented that he is currently playing SWAT 4, Guitar Heroes, many of the online Wild Tangent games, Black, and Ghost Recon. Cyrus Lum is currently playing Guitar Heroes and likes to dress up for the experience including wigs. He is also playing the online Maze game. Mark Cerny mentioned Final Fantasy 12. Masaya Matsuura has been playing the games he is currently developing and Louis Castle has been actively playing every XBOX360 game he can get a hold of along with Ghost Recon, Black and Guitar Heroes.
Audience Questions
To conclude the panel, the group addressed questions from the audience. The first question was concerning MMOG games. The panel agreed that MMOG games are here to stay and that the future will hold more major licensed MMOG games to establish a communities of players with similar interests. Several panelist agreed that there should be a decline in traditional D&D-based and fantasy-type MMOGs. China has introduced some interesting MMOG games that should be looked at.
A second audience question asked if any of the panelist are using Spiral or Agile development methodologies. Most panelist commented that they aren’t using these approaches, but stressed the importance of being more disciplined and predictive in their goal setting because “big and crappy is still crappy.” If games are designed to be completed in 2 hours, they often find their way to the used bin, but there is a movement to design games that provide a gaming experience that can be completed in a weekend. Many games need to have enough play to beat the rental market. Games need a new hook for the sequel. For example, the sequel to Guitar Heroes needs to be something unique. Releasing new songs would simply be an expansion pack, but players want to see something new and innovative in sequels, more than just new content. David commented that Flight Simulator has just released version 12, but each new version has enough new stuff thrown in to keep players coming back.
Unite 2010
