PART V: In Summary

A layman's divination into the future

Ultima Online and Everquest are very different games.

Tabula Rasa and Vanguard promise to also be very different.

Brad McQuaid and Richard Garriott have disagreed on many aspects of design for years.

Thus it seemed natural that they'd have significantly different views and visions of the genre and its future. This was virtually the thesis of my article, in spirit if not in word. And I was wrong. They may have different styles of design but when it comes to the genre they both love their vision is unified.

And so, through these last pages, a path has been painted for us. Their agreement on the industry at the macro scale is very significant. It is this agreement that I believe makes this vision of the future significant, compelling, and quite likely. Two proven experts who have often disagreed both agree on all the points that mater. So what is the state of the MMORPG genre? Can we now answer the questions posed at the beginning of this article? Can we now, at least in a broad way, predict the future? To that I give a resounding "yes". And here it is, the state of the genre:

1) The current state of the industry was inevitable and there is no need to worry. MMO games are here to stay. While the genre's failures are more visible than the games of other genres they are no more severe or threatening. Just as the FPS and RPG genres would continue even past the failures of a Doom or a Final Fantasy the MMO genre will continue on. In fact the future continues to look quite bright for the genre as a whole.

2) The rewards and potential of the MMO genre are balanced by its risks. There is no genre that is more rewarding but also no genre with a higher cost to produce games for (in capitol, manpower, support, and time). Therefore inexperienced designers and publishers had best beware. This is not to say new developers cannot emerge but simply a cautionary tale. New developers must tread very, very carefully if they wish to succeed in this area.

3) A revolution is very unlikely. The cost of these games makes experiments very risky. The safest path to success for all but the biggest developers will be through evolutions of the models that have been proven to work.

4) The games themselves must continue to be games. Yes, "slot machine" style experiences have done well but this is fading as new options become available. Further, the current market is only the tip of the possible customer base. An MMO game must be built to retain customers but it also must be compelling. All of the new large scale features that are coming are pointing towards better play experiences (dynamic content, player alterable worlds, the closing of the "single player gap", etc) and it is this better gameplay is what will retain players in the future, not a dependence upon repetitive addiction.

About the Author

Rick is a former web designer and a published writer. Currently he studies Level Design at The Guildhall @ SMU

The Massive Growing Pains series will explore the growth and evolution of the MMO game through interviews with its leaders and pioneers in effort to bring an academic approach to the issues facing the industry's biggest "new" genre.