Unlimited capacity

Both the PlayStation 2 and the X-Box promise developers the Holy Grail of effectively unlimited 3D capabilities.  The numbers are staggering: 1 trillion operations per second on the X-Box, 300,000 polygons per frame at 60 frames per second using RenderWare 3 with only one of the vector units on PlayStation 2, etc.  Even if you apply a healthy dose of skepticism and cut these numbers in half, the net results still boggle the mind.

For developers, this changes everything.  Instead of making feature decisions based on hardware ("this won't work"), they will have to make them based on design choices ("we don't have time or money to do everything the machine can support, so what do we really want?")  Low-polygon character models will soon be a not-particularly-pleasant memory, like smallpox, powder-blue polyester suits and the New Kids on the Block.  The technological quantum leap also suggests that these machines will have longer life cycles than their predecessors: it will take many years before anyone even approaches the X-Box's limits.  From the dark side, publisher pressure may drive development costs even further into the stratosphere. ("The machine can take it, so please add these 1,200 additional features, won't you?")

Each of these machines comes with a caveat:

• Microsoft promises the X-Box for Fall 2001, but the company has a questionable record when it comes to delivering quality product in version 1.0 and on time.  However, X-Box is based on well-established technology, so I wouldn't bet against it.
• During Phil Harrison's keynote address, Naughty Dog's developers suggested (rather forcefully) that programming the PlayStation 2 was every bit as excruciating as reported earlier.  If the middleware market doesn't materialize (and fast), many smaller developers will be tempted to abandon the platform and wait for the DirectX 8-based X-box instead.

Episodic Distribution